Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172024 240310 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     38.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  20.1  19.6  25.9  19.0  25.9  22.8  39.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  23.0  25.0  28.0  13.0  16.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7  98.0 113.6 127.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  18.0  37.0  26.0 -16.0  49.0  57.0 102.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -7.0 -23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       19.3%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        8.1%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        7.9%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        7.9%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       19.5%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.8%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        5.7%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        4.0%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%        8.4%        7.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 SH172024 240310 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     38.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  20.1  19.6  25.9  19.0  25.9  22.8  39.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  64.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -7.0 -23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%