Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240311 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  25.8  26.6  29.0  28.4  29.5  23.6  26.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  59.0  82.0  80.0  38.0  17.0  14.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 112.9 106.5 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  62.0  26.0  11.0  19.0  40.0  13.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  51.0  52.0  49.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0   7.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       10.9%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        3.6%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.4%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%        9.1%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.4%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.5%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.7%        3.4%        5.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 SH182024 240311 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  25.8  26.6  29.0  28.4  29.5  23.6  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  51.0  52.0  49.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0   7.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%