Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240311 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  33.8  39.9  34.6  42.9  39.3  27.0  25.7  U  U  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  78.0  77.0  65.0  71.0  58.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  44.0  44.0  19.0  51.0  71.0  74.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  81.0  88.0  81.0  73.0  N  F  F  F  F VF  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -6.0   0.0  -7.0  -1.0  -9.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        5.6%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        3.9%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 SH182024 240311 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  33.8  39.9  34.6  42.9  39.3  27.0  25.7  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  81.0  88.0  81.0  73.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -6.0   0.0  -7.0  -1.0  -9.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%