Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240312 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  30.0  25.6  27.4  35.3  19.1  21.2  25.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  83.0  54.0  48.0  59.0  61.0  44.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  36.0  56.0  61.0  69.0  75.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   6.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.1%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        3.3%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.0%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       25.2%        6.7%       15.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 SH182024 240312 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  30.0  25.6  27.4  35.3  19.1  21.2  25.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   6.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%