Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240312 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  26.9  23.2  31.3  23.6  24.0  22.2  29.5  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  75.0  49.0  50.0  60.0  60.0  52.0  39.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  45.0  49.0  65.0  87.0  88.0  93.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   8.0  17.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        8.5%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.8%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.5%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%        7.2%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        5.5%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        1.8%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h       27.5%        7.8%       17.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 SH182024 240312 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  26.9  23.2  31.3  23.6  24.0  22.2  29.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   8.0  17.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%