Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240312 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  31.6  36.5  33.8  31.5  30.4  30.2  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  54.0  56.0  61.0  64.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  42.0  54.0  93.0  92.0  35.0  31.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  81.0  80.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        7.0%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        5.5%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        3.1%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%        5.2%        7.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 SH182024 240312 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  31.6  36.5  33.8  31.5  30.4  30.2  28.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  81.0  80.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%