Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240312 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  34.5  33.6  28.2  23.2  28.7  32.9  25.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  63.0  63.0  53.0  43.0  28.0  21.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  59.0  50.0  44.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  73.0  68.0  69.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -8.0   1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.0%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        3.7%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        2.3%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%        3.3%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.78

 SH182024 240312 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  34.5  33.6  28.2  23.2  28.7  32.9  25.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  73.0  68.0  69.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -8.0   1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%