Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240313 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.50 110.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.9 44.6 37.4 29.6 28.3 30.1 26.7 22.1 U VU U N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 61.0 65.0 62.0 65.0 67.0 46.0 39.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 31.0 33.0 47.0 64.0 65.0 38.0 28.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 78.0 85.0 83.0 78.0 73.0 70.0 72.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 -4.0 -3.0 -9.0 -3.0 -9.0 -7.0 -16.0 N F N F N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 7.5% 3.8% 5.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.00 SH182024 240313 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.50 110.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.9 44.6 37.4 29.6 28.3 30.1 26.7 22.1 F VF F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 78.0 85.0 83.0 78.0 73.0 70.0 72.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 -4.0 -3.0 -9.0 -3.0 -9.0 -7.0 -16.0 N U N U N U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%