Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240313 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  28.1  26.0  29.1  19.0  29.7  24.2  24.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  47.0  39.0  36.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  26.0  52.0  83.0  25.0  69.0  27.0   1.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   8.0  11.0  12.0  23.0  17.0   7.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.7%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        8.3%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        5.0%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.0%        5.8%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 SH182024 240313 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  28.1  26.0  29.1  19.0  29.7  24.2  24.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   8.0  11.0  12.0  23.0  17.0   7.0  N  N  F  F  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%