Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240313 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  26.0  29.6  30.1  24.2  20.4  19.9  20.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  65.0  64.0  54.0  38.0  29.0  25.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  39.0  83.0  73.0  36.0  37.0  -1.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        6.3%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        6.6%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        4.4%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%        7.7%        8.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.24

 SH182024 240313 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  26.0  29.6  30.1  24.2  20.4  19.9  20.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%