Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240313 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  36.6  29.8  21.4  18.7  20.3  14.4  17.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  65.0  63.0  52.0  35.0  26.0  23.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  60.0  65.0  31.0  36.0   6.0 -18.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   3.0   7.0   3.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       12.4%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.5%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.8%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       15.7%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.1%       10.4%        9.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        4.2%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%       13.5%       11.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.34

 SH182024 240313 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  36.6  29.8  21.4  18.7  20.3  14.4  17.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   3.0   7.0   3.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%