Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240314 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  25.5  18.0  18.3  17.9  17.6  22.5  15.4  U  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  44.0  37.0  31.0  24.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  63.0  58.0  36.0  -6.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  71.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        9.2%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.9%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       10.6%        6.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        7.0%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%       10.3%        9.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.26

 SH182024 240314 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  25.5  18.0  18.3  17.9  17.6  22.5  15.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  71.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%