Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240314 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  21.7  21.5  17.8  17.2  20.1  25.9  22.2  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  31.0  27.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  43.0  32.0  28.0 -10.0 -28.0 -38.0  -7.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  66.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        8.9%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.9%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       10.0%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        5.9%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        6.3%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 SH182024 240314 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  21.7  21.5  17.8  17.2  20.1  25.9  22.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  66.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%