Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240314 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  17.6  17.1  13.1  13.8  12.1  18.4  20.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  28.0  27.0  29.0  26.0  24.0  29.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  20.0  39.0  28.0  34.0   4.0   7.0   2.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       15.1%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.0%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.7%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        5.7%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       19.2%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.1%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       12.1%       15.2%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        7.0%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h       19.8%       19.0%       19.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 SH182024 240314 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  17.6  17.1  13.1  13.8  12.1  18.4  20.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%