Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240315 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  23.2  20.0  23.0  21.0  14.7  17.4  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0  23.0  23.0  24.0  24.0  25.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  15.0  27.0  16.0 -14.0  -9.0  24.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%       12.0%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.7%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.7%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       12.2%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        8.6%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        3.8%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%       12.4%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 SH182024 240315 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  23.2  20.0  23.0  21.0  14.7  17.4  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%