Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240315 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  23.2  27.8  25.6  19.8  20.0  25.3  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  26.0  27.0  28.0  23.0  18.0  20.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  25.0  39.0  15.0   7.0  28.0  34.0  12.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  68.0  72.0  69.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.9%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        8.0%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        5.1%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        6.2%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 SH182024 240315 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  23.2  27.8  25.6  19.8  20.0  25.3  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  68.0  72.0  69.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%