Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240316 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    114.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  25.7  26.1  21.3  17.2  18.0  18.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  29.0  31.0  32.0  30.0  26.0  27.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  12.0  -1.0  -3.0  16.0  24.0  33.0  20.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        9.9%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       12.8%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        8.3%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        3.5%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%       12.4%       10.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 SH182024 240316 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    114.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  25.7  26.1  21.3  17.2  18.0  18.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%