Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240316 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  26.1  21.5  17.0  20.1  20.4  25.9  20.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  33.0  28.0  29.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   5.0  -2.0  10.0  -6.0  40.0  26.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       10.1%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        3.8%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       11.7%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        7.3%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        2.9%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%        9.6%        9.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 SH182024 240316 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  26.1  21.5  17.0  20.1  20.4  25.9  20.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%