Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240316 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  21.6  24.1  21.5  18.8  27.1  21.4  22.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  49.0  48.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  -4.0   0.0  16.0  25.0  65.0   9.0 -13.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  53.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.8%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%       25.0%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%       13.0%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       12.0%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       12.0%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       33.1%       20.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.5%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%       16.3%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        9.7%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       15.2%       21.8%       18.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 SH182024 240316 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  21.6  24.1  21.5  18.8  27.1  21.4  22.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  53.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%