Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240317 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  22.4  17.1  14.3  24.6  21.4  22.1  20.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  36.0  30.0  25.0  25.0  27.0  28.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -18.0 -11.0  -4.0  48.0  57.0 -28.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       14.5%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        6.8%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        6.2%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.2%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       14.6%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        9.2%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        4.0%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.5%       11.5%       10.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 SH182024 240317 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  22.4  17.1  14.3  24.6  21.4  22.1  20.6  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%