Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240317 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  16.6  16.8  22.5  22.8  20.7  19.0  20.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  37.0  34.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  27.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -15.0  -2.0  27.0  26.0  19.0 -11.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       18.2%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        9.0%        5.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        8.3%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        8.3%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       17.7%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%       11.4%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        5.2%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       12.4%       13.1%       12.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 SH182024 240317 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  16.6  16.8  22.5  22.8  20.7  19.0  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%