Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240317 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.40 112.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 79.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 15.0 21.9 23.8 16.1 19.4 19.0 16.9 F F N N F N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 27.0 27.0 26.0 24.0 21.0 16.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 122.3 113.6 113.6 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 32.0 51.0 28.0 6.0 7.0 -14.0 -14.0 U N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 55.0 51.0 47.0 41.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 6.8% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 9.3% 36.6% 23.0% 30kt / 24h 4.2% 23.4% 13.8% 35kt / 24h 2.6% 23.3% 13.0% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 21.7% 11.3% 45kt / 36h 7.7% 42.3% 25.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 23.8% 11.9% 55kt / 48h 14.3% 24.4% 19.3% 70kt / 48h 2.8% 14.6% 8.7% 65kt / 72h 8.9% 20.4% 14.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 SH182024 240317 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.40 112.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 15.0 21.9 23.8 16.1 19.4 19.0 16.9 U U N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 55.0 51.0 47.0 41.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%