Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240318 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    112.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  21.1  21.1  21.7  27.5  19.5  20.0  17.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  23.0  23.0  22.0  23.0  21.0  16.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9 109.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  49.0  40.0  31.0  42.0   9.0  18.0  41.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        4.6%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       30.5%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       18.1%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       18.0%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       16.9%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       29.1%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.2%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%       17.5%       12.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        8.8%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%       16.9%       12.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 SH182024 240318 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    112.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  21.1  21.1  21.7  27.5  19.5  20.0  17.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%