Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240318 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 112.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 19.0 20.0 20.8 15.2 18.4 17.5 16.5 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 23.0 18.0 37.0 37.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 120.7 120.7 122.9 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 -31.0 -21.0 6.0 -22.0 2.0 -49.0 -44.0 U VU VU U VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 58.0 58.0 53.0 54.0 52.0 46.0 N N U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 9.0% 4.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 3.7% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 3.1% 1.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.1% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 11.5% 6.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.6% 1.8% 55kt / 48h 2.9% 6.4% 4.7% 70kt / 48h 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 65kt / 72h 5.9% 9.2% 7.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 SH182024 240318 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 112.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 19.0 20.0 20.8 15.2 18.4 17.5 16.5 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 58.0 58.0 53.0 54.0 52.0 46.0 N N F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%