Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240318 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  18.7  22.1  20.5  15.1  15.8  18.3  15.2  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  20.0  19.0  14.0  20.0  23.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 132.0 129.6 118.6 114.4 112.4 106.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  16.0   5.0   1.0 -25.0 -26.0 -24.0 -36.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       16.0%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        7.2%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        6.5%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        6.5%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       19.6%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        7.4%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        5.4%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%       10.4%        7.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 SH182024 240318 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  18.7  22.1  20.5  15.1  15.8  18.3  15.2  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%