Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240319 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  22.5  20.9  17.2  14.3  18.3  16.1  22.7  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  18.0  16.0  14.0  12.0  21.0  14.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 129.6 125.1 122.9 114.4 114.4 104.8  99.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -11.0 -16.0 -27.0 -37.0 -64.0 -32.0 -12.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  46.0  47.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        9.7%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.5%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       13.8%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        3.8%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        3.1%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        5.6%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 SH182024 240319 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  22.5  20.9  17.2  14.3  18.3  16.1  22.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  46.0  47.0  43.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%