Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240319 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  14.7  14.3  14.0  17.2  19.8  15.7  16.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  16.0  13.0  14.0  44.0  43.0  22.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 125.1 118.6 116.5 120.7 122.9 114.4 120.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  12.0  16.0  25.0  16.0  26.0  17.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       12.7%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.3%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.7%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.7%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       19.0%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        7.5%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%        6.0%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       22.1%       14.6%       18.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 SH182024 240319 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  14.7  14.3  14.0  17.2  19.8  15.7  16.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%