Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240319 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  13.5  11.1  13.4  18.7  17.6  20.2  20.8  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  15.0  12.0  14.0  25.0  13.0  14.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 125.1 116.5 114.4 114.4 104.8 103.0 116.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -24.0 -15.0 -22.0 -14.0  -1.0  -4.0  -6.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.6%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       10.8%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        2.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        2.7%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        5.6%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 SH182024 240319 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  13.5  11.1  13.4  18.7  17.6  20.2  20.8  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%