Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240319 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  11.2  13.4  15.6  15.9  18.3  21.8  24.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  14.0  22.0  20.0  11.0  18.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 114.4 114.4 114.4 110.5 101.2 112.4  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -15.0 -22.0 -19.0  -6.0  11.0  -1.0 -18.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  42.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.2%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       11.7%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.1%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.3%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        2.8%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        4.7%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 SH182024 240319 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  11.2  13.4  15.6  15.9  18.3  21.8  24.3  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  42.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%