Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240320 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  13.1  14.9  16.7  15.9  22.1  23.6  24.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  20.0  25.0  14.0  11.0  16.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 107.4 107.4 109.4  98.0  94.4 109.4  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -34.0 -23.0 -14.0  14.0 -23.0  -8.0 -11.0  U VU VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -8.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        9.3%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.2%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       16.0%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.7%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        4.4%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        3.4%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        4.0%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 SH182024 240320 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  13.1  14.9  16.7  15.9  22.1  23.6  24.4  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -8.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%