Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240320 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  13.7  15.2  15.4  13.8  19.0  19.7  28.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  22.0  25.0  21.0  11.0  19.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.4 104.4 102.4  98.5  89.4 104.4  87.7  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -16.0 -28.0 -13.0  10.0  -5.0 -23.0  27.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  43.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0 -16.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        5.8%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       19.1%       11.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%       10.6%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       10.0%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       10.0%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       29.1%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.5%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        7.6%        7.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%        7.9%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        5.8%        3.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 SH182024 240320 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.