Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240320 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.80 108.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.2 19.3 15.3 17.1 19.1 19.1 27.6 42.5 F N F F N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 24.0 20.0 13.0 13.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.4 92.4 88.5 83.0 83.0 98.6 69.6 59.4 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 -39.0 -11.0 1.0 -20.0 7.0 11.0 94.0 VU VU U U VU U U F Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 41.0 40.0 43.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -13.0 -22.0 N N N F N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.0% 7.5% 9.3% 25kt / 24h 7.2% 16.9% 12.1% 30kt / 24h 7.2% 9.7% 8.5% 35kt / 24h 6.1% 9.7% 7.9% 40kt / 24h 6.1% 9.7% 7.9% 45kt / 36h 4.3% 20.3% 12.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 10.5% 5.3% 55kt / 48h 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 70kt / 48h 5.7% 4.6% 5.1% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 2.3% 1.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.24 SH182024 240320 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.80 108.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.