Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240320 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.90 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 14.7 18.5 17.9 21.9 22.2 31.6 48.9 F F N F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 17.0 10.0 9.0 16.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.5 74.8 69.4 67.7 80.5 66.0 53.6 50.8 N U U U N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -24.0 -6.0 -11.0 0.0 -3.0 17.0 17.0 60.0 VU U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 47.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 42.0 43.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -4.0 -12.0 -18.0 -21.0 N N F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.0% 9.8% 15.4% 25kt / 24h 11.4% 14.0% 12.7% 30kt / 24h 11.4% 8.5% 9.9% 35kt / 24h 11.4% 8.5% 9.9% 40kt / 24h 11.4% 8.5% 9.9% 45kt / 36h 5.3% 13.0% 9.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.9% 3.0% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 SH182024 240320 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.90 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.