Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240321 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.90 106.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 55.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.4 17.1 19.7 21.9 21.7 26.6 39.7 54.0 N F N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.6 64.8 63.0 63.0 66.6 48.0 39.4 45.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 -6.0 -11.0 -19.0 6.0 23.0 109.0 84.0 U U U U U U F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 42.0 41.0 39.0 38.0 40.0 41.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -9.0 -18.0 -14.0 -20.0 F F F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 24.0% 8.4% 16.2% 25kt / 24h 14.2% 11.2% 12.7% 30kt / 24h 14.2% 7.4% 10.8% 35kt / 24h 14.2% 7.4% 10.8% 40kt / 24h 14.2% 7.4% 10.8% 45kt / 36h 4.2% 7.2% 5.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.9% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.02 SH182024 240321 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.90 106.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.