Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240321 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  19.9  20.5  21.8  23.9  30.1  45.4  46.6  F  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  11.0  13.0  22.0  14.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.8  48.0  49.8  57.4  48.0  42.7  34.6  42.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  -3.0 -16.0   0.0  20.0  77.0  96.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  41.0  39.0  38.0  35.0  40.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0 -11.0 -15.0 -13.0 -11.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.8%       14.5%       29.6%
 25kt / 24h       18.2%       17.2%       17.7%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       13.9%       16.0%
 35kt / 24h       18.2%       13.9%       16.0%
 40kt / 24h       18.2%       13.3%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 SH182024 240321 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.