Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240321 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  21.1  22.8  23.3  29.8  37.6  46.2  40.6  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  13.0  20.0  31.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.0  29.8  35.5  37.4  22.7  14.6  16.1  24.4 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -22.0   0.0  -1.0  32.0  64.0  56.0   5.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  36.0  37.0  39.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0 -12.0 -14.0 -19.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.4%        6.1%       14.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%        5.5%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.14

 SH182024 240321 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.