Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240321 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.80 103.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 22.7 25.2 27.4 29.8 46.8 48.4 41.7 N N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 23.5 11.0 6.1 6.1 0.0 -7.0 -7.0 -4.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 -1.0 -6.0 5.0 65.0 89.0 11.0 -26.0 U U U U N F U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 40.0 38.0 38.0 36.0 39.0 38.0 40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -6.0 -10.0 -12.0 -13.0 -15.0 -6.0 -11.0 F F F F VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 SH182024 240321 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.80 103.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115.