Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240322 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  28.8  29.5  30.9  37.0  39.5  40.7  34.7  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  35.0  19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         23.5  29.4  19.8  11.0   1.5   4.6  14.4   9.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   7.0  25.0  56.0  76.0  34.0  16.0  -2.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  37.0  41.0  40.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   6.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.96

 SH182024 240322 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.