Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240322 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    100.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  26.0  29.6  31.9  42.2  46.7  45.1  43.7  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.4  24.4  16.1  14.6   5.8  13.0  16.1  -0.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -23.0  -8.0  48.0  70.0   1.0 -38.0  17.0  U VU  U  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  39.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0  -7.0 -12.0 -14.0 -12.0  -8.0 -12.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.72

 SH182024 240322 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    100.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.