Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240322 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     99.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  29.4  30.2  35.9  44.6  45.1  40.7  41.8  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.4  32.7  32.7  23.6  26.5  36.0  23.6  10.5  U VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0  -2.0  45.0  58.0  62.0 -29.0 -39.0 -34.0 VU  U  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  37.0  43.0  46.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -10.0 -16.0 -17.0 -12.0  -7.0  -5.0 -13.0 VF  F VF VF  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.48

 SH182024 240322 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     99.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.