Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240322 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.70 97.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.2 28.0 34.9 40.3 43.3 38.7 42.3 55.3 N N U U VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.1 31.1 20.8 23.6 34.3 26.5 9.3 -3.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 48.0 57.0 76.0 30.0 -61.0 -31.0 0.0 U N N N N VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 39.0 35.0 35.0 37.0 42.0 46.0 55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -15.0 -14.0 -19.0 -11.0 -2.0 -9.0 -26.0 F VF VF VF F N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.06 SH182024 240322 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.70 97.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.