Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240323 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.50 93.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.1 42.6 41.2 46.2 39.1 48.5 48.5 48.5 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.8 43.6 48.0 52.7 48.0 32.9 32.9 32.9 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 55.0 24.0 8.0 -28.0 -34.0 -34.0 -34.0 F N U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 42.0 41.0 39.0 34.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -14.0 -10.0 -2.0 -2.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 F VF F N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.84 SH182024 240323 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.50 93.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.