Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240323 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.5  43.0  50.0  48.0  39.0  46.9  45.9  72.9  U VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.2  55.0  58.0  58.0  42.9  34.8  20.0   9.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  23.0  22.0 -25.0 -42.0  10.0  63.0  91.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  34.0  33.0  32.0  32.0  38.0  46.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -8.0  -6.0   1.0  -8.0 -13.0 -40.0  18.0  F  F  F  N  F VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.78

 SH182024 240323 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.