Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182024 240324 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     91.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.5  49.8  46.6  39.9  45.7  50.1  50.1  50.1 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.6  66.5  66.5  59.4  48.2  38.7  38.7  38.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  50.0  15.0  -8.0 -31.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  U  U VU  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  39.0  39.0  36.0  39.0  50.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -9.0  -1.0  -1.0  -9.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0  F  F  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.64

 SH182024 240324 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     91.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.