Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182024 240324 06UTC Storm Located at : -22.70 90.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.5 43.7 43.2 42.1 61.1 61.6 125.2 125.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.5 65.8 56.7 55.5 40.0 18.7 0.5 0.5 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 -28.0 -35.0 -35.0 29.0 131.0 91.0 91.0 U VU VU VU N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 38.0 33.0 34.0 52.0 60.0 51.0 51.0 VU VU VU VU U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -8.0 -7.0 -12.0 -35.0 -16.0 177.0 177.0 F F F F VF VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.32 SH182024 240324 06UTC Storm Located at : -22.70 90.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.