Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240315 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    137.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  25.9  25.2  21.7  26.5  31.6  26.9  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  98.0  91.0  86.0  71.0  46.0  32.0   3.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  54.0  38.0  21.0  23.0   1.0 -29.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        3.2%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       27.8%       20.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%       12.4%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       11.0%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       11.0%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%       31.2%       22.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.6%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.6%       13.7%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h       12.5%        7.8%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       21.2%       14.2%       17.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 SH192024 240315 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    137.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  25.9  25.2  21.7  26.5  31.6  26.9  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%