Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240315 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.1  24.4  24.8  27.0  26.6  19.6  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0 101.0  86.0  69.0  25.0  54.0  22.0  14.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  55.0  44.0  55.0  11.0 -19.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        5.7%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       36.6%       28.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       19.5%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%       17.7%       11.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       17.7%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%       31.6%       22.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.5%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       14.9%       15.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        7.6%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h       18.6%       16.3%       17.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 SH192024 240315 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.1  24.4  24.8  27.0  26.6  19.6  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%