Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240316 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    137.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  25.7  25.7  28.5  30.6  31.5  27.5  34.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 108.0 106.0  97.0  71.0  47.0  85.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  52.0  33.0  17.0  -1.0 -26.0  18.0 -19.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  60.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.5%       24.0%       29.2%
 25kt / 24h       52.9%       63.3%       58.1%
 30kt / 24h       41.6%       48.0%       44.8%
 35kt / 24h       32.0%       48.0%       40.0%
 40kt / 24h       21.6%       47.6%       34.6%
 45kt / 36h       35.8%       54.0%       44.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.0%       16.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.5%       21.7%       22.1%
 70kt / 48h       11.5%       13.6%       12.5%
 65kt / 72h       15.5%       17.6%       16.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.06

 SH192024 240316 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    137.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  25.7  25.7  28.5  30.6  31.5  27.5  34.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  60.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%