Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240316 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  26.3  31.3  28.2  28.2  35.7  29.7  32.3  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  85.0  73.0  57.0  85.0  78.0  40.0  22.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  41.0  14.0  12.0 -20.0   4.0  -3.0  26.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%       14.4%       15.2%
 25kt / 24h       30.1%       45.1%       37.6%
 30kt / 24h       20.3%       30.1%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h       17.8%       30.1%       23.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       29.3%       18.0%
 45kt / 36h       17.4%       33.3%       25.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.2%        7.6%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%       13.5%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        6.3%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h        7.5%        9.7%        8.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 SH192024 240316 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  26.3  31.3  28.2  28.2  35.7  29.7  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%