Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240316 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  27.0  29.4  31.4  33.1  36.2  35.9  39.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  80.0  70.0  53.0  12.0  11.0  54.0  17.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   0.0 -15.0 -33.0 -27.0  54.0  15.0  -8.0  N  U  U VU VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.8%       14.6%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       24.1%       43.0%       33.6%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       33.1%       25.3%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%       33.1%       25.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       29.9%       16.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.6%       24.0%       16.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.3%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        8.5%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.5%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.26

 SH192024 240316 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  27.0  29.4  31.4  33.1  36.2  35.9  39.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%